World demand for architectural paint is forecast to rise 3.6 percent per year through 2013 to 22.8 million metric tons, valued at $51 billion, according to “World Architectural Paint,” a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-OH-based industry research firm. Growth will slow in comparison to the performance of the 2003 to 2008 period due to a deceleration in global building construction growth through 2013. Gains will nevertheless remain strong by long term historical standards as a result of healthy global economic growth and continuing gains in the world’s urban population that will put a strain on the existing housing stock.
As was the case over the past decade, the most rapid gains will arise in the world’s emerging markets, most prominently in Asia. Gains in Asia are based primarily on continued healthy expansion in the large Chinese and Indian markets. Although Japan is projected to post gains that will significantly lag the global average through 2013, the country’s architectural paint market will see a reversal of the declines experienced during the 1998-2008 period.
North America will post slightly above-average gains through 2013. Going forward, the housing and mortgage crisis that has plagued the U.S. since 2006 will subside, providing opportunities for paint sales to the new homes market. Moreover, sales to the much larger home repainting segment will also benefit as sales of existing homes improve because existing homes are often repainted when they are to be sold. A rebound in the large U.S. market will benefit growth in the North American region. In 2008, Western Europe accounted for 21 percent of total architectural paint demand. Western Europe’s share of the global market will continue to slip as the region registers weak gains, due to below-average economic and building construction expenditure growth, mortgage sector weaknesses in some constituent nations and stagnant regional population gains. Nevertheless, Western Europe will remain the world’s leading regional net exporter of architectural paint, due largely to the presence of Germany.