Kerry Pianoforte, Editor05.09.22
As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, the expectation for the heavily impacted airline industry is that recovery is imminent. However, there are several factors that may impede this recovery. According to an April 11, 2022 article from global management consulting firm Bain & Company, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising inflation and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China have pushed projections for a return to 2019 air traffic levels back by a full year.
Here are some key finding from the article, Air Travel Forecast: When Will Airlines Recover from Covid-19?:
• Bain’s baseline recovery scenario for 2022 rose from 65% to 73% of 2019 levels due to the strong first quarter, with projected revenues for the year up from $432 billion to $488 billion.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China have dampened the longer-term outlook for global air travel. Bain doesn’t expect air traffic levels to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second quarter of 2025, a full 12 months later than its previous forecast.
• Travel projections between Europe and Asia also have taken a significant hit, dropping from 70% to 56% of 2019 levels, reflecting both the impact of China’s lockdowns and soaring operation costs due to bans on flights over Russian airspace. Travel projections in Europe have also dipped due in part to the halt of commercial aviation capacity in Ukraine.
This month’s article on Aerospace Coatings explores the latest developments and how manufacturers are adapting to the changing market conditions.
Among the additions to the article was AkzoNobel’s CEO Thierry Vanlancker’s latest statement on the situation: “Our business in Russia represented about 2% of our revenue prior to the start of the conflict and we have 640 colleagues in the country. Our Aerospace Coatings activities and new investments and marketing activities have already been suspended in Russia. The Q1 financial impact of the Ukraine/Russia conflict was approximately €5 million on our operating income. Going forward, as a result of the latest EU sanctions, the majority of our Coatings business in Russia is being suspended and the residual Russian business will be locally operated which we expect to decrease by approximately 70% compared to 2021.We’re evaluating the situation daily and it might be that more of the remaining business in Russia could come to a halt in the next months, mainly due to the increasing practical difficulties around the supply of raw materials into Russia.”
The updated article is available on our website.
Here are some key finding from the article, Air Travel Forecast: When Will Airlines Recover from Covid-19?:
• Bain’s baseline recovery scenario for 2022 rose from 65% to 73% of 2019 levels due to the strong first quarter, with projected revenues for the year up from $432 billion to $488 billion.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China have dampened the longer-term outlook for global air travel. Bain doesn’t expect air traffic levels to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second quarter of 2025, a full 12 months later than its previous forecast.
• Travel projections between Europe and Asia also have taken a significant hit, dropping from 70% to 56% of 2019 levels, reflecting both the impact of China’s lockdowns and soaring operation costs due to bans on flights over Russian airspace. Travel projections in Europe have also dipped due in part to the halt of commercial aviation capacity in Ukraine.
This month’s article on Aerospace Coatings explores the latest developments and how manufacturers are adapting to the changing market conditions.
Correction:
The April Russia Report, Russian Coating Industry Braced for Impact of the Ukraine War, contained incomplete and outdated information regarding AkzoNobel’s presence in Russia.Among the additions to the article was AkzoNobel’s CEO Thierry Vanlancker’s latest statement on the situation: “Our business in Russia represented about 2% of our revenue prior to the start of the conflict and we have 640 colleagues in the country. Our Aerospace Coatings activities and new investments and marketing activities have already been suspended in Russia. The Q1 financial impact of the Ukraine/Russia conflict was approximately €5 million on our operating income. Going forward, as a result of the latest EU sanctions, the majority of our Coatings business in Russia is being suspended and the residual Russian business will be locally operated which we expect to decrease by approximately 70% compared to 2021.We’re evaluating the situation daily and it might be that more of the remaining business in Russia could come to a halt in the next months, mainly due to the increasing practical difficulties around the supply of raw materials into Russia.”
The updated article is available on our website.
