Brazil Vehicle Sales Spike to 10-Year High

Brazil’s sales of new vehicles including buses and trucks surged by 14% in 2024 to a 10-year high, according to the Associacao Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veiculos Automotores (Anfavea). Full-year sales amounted to 2.63 million vehicles in 2024, returning the country to a global ranking of eighth largest among markets, according to the organization.

The projection for 2025 production is for an 8.4% increase in light vehicles, including cars and pickup trucks, to 2.58 million units, Anfavea suggested. Total production, including commercial vehicles, is expected to hit 2.8 million units in 2025. Of those produced, 428,000 are expected to be exported during 2025, an increase of 7.4% above the 2025 level, the group said.

The 2025 projections could be conservative, given the tendency for second-half sales to rise rapidly. “In the comparison of the second half of 2024 with the first half, production was up 26.2%, registrations were up 32% and exports were up 44.2%,” said Anfavea president Márcio de Lima Leite, in an industry pronouncement.

“Normally the second-half numbers grow at a faster rate but this [past] year we had a fantastic second half, the best in the last 10 years,” Leite said.

Powder Coatings Demand to Rise

The growth in the automotive industry should create greater demand for powder coatings in Brazil. Among manufacturers gearing up for demand growth is PPG, which in late 2023 completed an expansion of its powder coatings plant in Sumaré, in Sao Paulo state. The $2.7 million project increased the production capacity of the facility by 40%.

The largest manufacturers of energy-efficient powder coatings in Brazil are AkzoNobel, Jotun, BASF, IGP, PPG and TCI, according to a November 2023 posting on LinkedIn by DataMasteryAnalytics.

Brazil’s energy efficient powder coating market had a market worth $98.98 million in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22.4% during the forecast period [ending 2031], according to Cognitive Market Research. “Brazil’s energy-efficient powder coating market is growing due to rising industrial activity and a shift towards more sustainable manufacturing practices,” the analysts said in late 2024.

Across the region, “the Latin America market amounts to more than 5% of global revenue for energy efficient powder coatings, with a market size of $231.26 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% from 2024 to 2031,” Cognitive said.

New Automotive Investments

Among the many manufacturers of commercial vehicles in Brazil, heavy truck producer JCB is making new investments in its production capacity. Some $30 million will be invested in the modernization of the Sorocaba, Sao Paulo state facility, where most of the company’s 600 Latin American workers are located.

Region-wide, JCB plans to invest $100 million to double its capacity in the region by 2030. Sorocaba serves as the production hub for the region.

In the passenger car and bus markets, Chinese carmaker BYD announced plans to verticalize its electric vehicle production operations in Brazil through $620 million worth of investments, according to EPBR News Agency. “This plan encompasses the entire value chain, ranging from lithium exploration and processing to battery manufacturing, culminating in the production of both buses and automobiles,” the agency reported in January 2024.

As such, BYD’s Dolphin EV will be the first to be produced entirely in Brazil, the company said. A dozen multinational automakers have announced EV investments in Brazilian production capacity, according to MobilityPortalEurope.

Similarly, Stellantis announced investments of about $6 billion for Brazil and other countries in the region, “the largest investment in the history of the Brazilian and South American automotive industry,” the company announced in March 2024. “The planned investments will support the launch of more than 40 new products during the period as well as the development of new Bio-Hybrid technologies, innovative decarbonization technologies across the automotive supply chain, and strategic new business opportunities.”

The investment “accelerates [Stellantis’] achievement of the Dare Forward 2030 long-term strategic plan as the region maintains its leadership in offering clean, safe and affordable mobility in Brazil and South America,” the company notes.

Export Markets More Volatile

Anfavea projects total 2025 vehicle exports of 428,000 units, an increase of 6.2% compared to 2024. However, the destination country market shares are changing.

During 2024, “there was a significant loss of share of Brazilian products in Mexico. On the other hand, Argentina regained its position as our country’s main trading partner from Mexico,” the association noted.

“Of note was the recovery of [second semester 2024] shipments to Argentina, with a growth of 39%, and Uruguay, with an increase of 14%,” Anfavea reported.

As the U.S. import tariff regime changes under President Donald Trump, more South American automotive production could become competitive with Mexican production in the U.S. market. In December, Trump floated the idea of a 25% tax on Mexican products.

Environmental Causes to Shift the Automotive Market

Brazilian vehicle manufacturers are retooling factories to upgrade processes and products, in keeping with the government’s focus on environmental concerns. Anfavea recently dedicated itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The group has re-released a commissioned study titled “Advancing on the Paths of Automotive Decarbonization in Brazil,” conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

According to the study, “the Brazilian automotive sector emits 242 million tons of CO2 per year, which represents approximately 13% of Brazil’s total emissions. If the current growth rate is maintained, emissions could reach 256 million tons in 2040.”

“However, by intensifying the use of new propulsion technologies developed by national vehicle manufacturers, combined with the greater use of biofuels, a reduction of up to 280 million tons of CO2 can be achieved over the next 15 years,” the BCG study found. Brazil is a powerhouse of sugar cane production used to produce ethanol.

One program that will facilitate the retooling of the automotive industry is Mover, the federal government’s Green Mobility and Innovation Program, armed with low-cost loans and billions of dollars’ worth of potential tax incentives for manufacturers.

This unfolding program, domestically known as Mobilidade Verde e Inovação, was launched by President Luiz Inácio (Lula) da Silva in March 2024, and is operated by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services, or the Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC).

“Mover seeks to incentivize investment in sustainable technologies aimed at reducing carbon emissions from various modes of transportation, including passenger cars, buses and trucks. By offering financial credits, the program enables automotive companies to transition to greener practices while reaping the economic benefits of an innovative and forward-looking framework,” said the MDIC.

The program is on the U.S. government radar. “Recent industrial policy changes made by the current Brazilian government have spurred vehicle manufacturers active in Brazil to announce new investments in modernizing manufacturing facilities and research and development capabilities to improve sustainability and move toward production of electric and hybrid vehicles,” reckoned the U.S. International Trade Administration (USITA).

“Overall, a record $22 billion in [planned] investments have been announced in the sector this year with investment occurring through 2032, according to Anfavea,” USITA reported in April 2024.

“The program includes an average of $800 million in incentives for companies that invest in decarbonization operations between 2024 and 2028 and aims to reach more than $2 billion in tax credits by its end. In March 2024, the government defined the first rules for these incentives that companies will be able to use in tax abatement for research, development, and production investments,” USITA explained.