The Latin American market for paint and coatings has begun a slow market recovery, as it closely tracks regional gross domestic product growth, expected to rise by a half point to 1.7 percent this year, compared with 1.2 percent last year.

The industry tends to expand one or two percent faster than GDP in good years, which in Latin America is often a relative term. When a few countries have recessions – like Argentina and Nicaragua in 2018, other nations may blossom, offering the more internationally-diversified manufacturers an opportunity to focus on the hot spots.

This year, the paint and coatings industry will adapt to the high and low spots in country-by country GDP expansion ranging from 5.7 percent in the Dominican Republic to a 10 percent contraction in Venezuela, according to the latest statistics from the Americas Society.

The fastest growing countries in the region this year after the Dominican Republic are expected to be: Panama at 5.6 percent; Bolivia at 4.3 percent; Paraguay at 4.2 percent; Honduras and Peru at 3.6 percent; and Chile and Colombia at 3.3 percent.

The location of these hot spots would suggest that a strong distributor in Mexico – like PPG’s Comex – would be well positioned to serve the Caribbean and Central American countries, while the several strong manufacturers in Brazil would be well positioned to serve the Andean and Southern Cone countries with exports.

While these small markets may be promising, the potential volume gains are limited since Brazil, Mexico and Argentina account for over two-thirds of the region’s GDP, while the Caribbean and North Atlantic nations represented just over 1 percent of the region’s total GDP, according to statistics from the International Monetary Fund.

One short-term limit to growth in the region is currency stability, which led to translational losses for PPG over the past year. “Foreign currency translation was volatile and finished 4 percent unfavorable compared to 2017, principally the Mexican peso and Brazilian real,” the company’s latest annual report noted.

Inflation, too can still be a limiting factor on performance year by year. Colombia’s Grupo Orbis, in the midst of a strong investment campaign, posted a mild loss last year as a result of inflation.

Company Stores Strategy

Direct foreign investment is a longer-term strategy for expansion in the region, and a mix of short- and long-term strategies is typically necessary to survive the dips long enough to enjoy the high sales glides.

But another strategy for expansion with rapid implementation in smaller and larger economies alike is the growth of either company-owned paint stores or branded distributors, a practice in which Sherwin-Williams excels in the region. Local country currencies, however, can have a negative impact in some years, as did 2018 for S-W.

As of the end of last year, S-W’s Latin America Division operated 342 paint stores in Uruguay, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Ecuador. At the same point in time, the Southeastern Division operated 1,117 paint stores principally covering the lower east and gulf coast states, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, St. Maarten, Jamaica, Curacao, Aruba, St. Lucia and Barbados, according to the company’s latest annual report.

Despite the diversification, currency devaluations in two major economies punctured S-W regional earnings last year. “Our business in Latin America went from positive double-digit growth last year to a high single-digit decline this year due to high-teens unfavorable currency translation. Segment profit dollars and margins for the group were negatively impacted by lower-than-anticipated volume, which, in North America, was likely the result of projects being postponed. During the quarter, we opened 15 net new stores, finishing the quarter with 4,711 stores in operation compared to 4,624 last year. Our plan calls for this team to add approximately 90 to 100 net new stores in the Americas by the end of this year,” said John G. Morikis, the company CEO, in an April 23 conference call hosted by Thomson Reuters.

Mexico

Mexico’s gross domestic produce is expected to increase by 2.1 percent this year, according to the United Nation’s Economic Commission on Latin America, or Eclac. The proximity of Mexico to the United States has served the former well in terms of bilateral trade. Raw materials from the northern side of the border are readily transformed into final products on the southern side, where both locally produced petroleum derivatives and low-cost electricity generators are in abundance.

The national paint and coatings association, Asociación Nacional de Fabricantes de Pinturas y Tintas (ANAFAPYT), earlier this year elected Víctor Manuel González, of Sherwin-Williams, as its new president. Simultaneously, the presidency of the regional paint association LatinPin, is now seated in Mexico.

PPG is particularly bullish on Mexico. In its most recent annual report, the company said, “Overall, demand in Latin America improved year-over-year for the second consecutive year, with continued above market growth in Mexico and Central America.”

“Economic conditions were mixed in South America, and there was heightened currency volatility throughout the entire region. The overall region’s performance was supported by strong growth in the general industrial and packaging coatings businesses. In Latin America, we anticipate economic expansion will continue in Mexico, most of Central America and South America,” the PPG report said..

In Mexico, the PPG-Comex business added over 200 new concessionaire locations, the annual report noted. From it base in Mexico, PPG’s Comex has expanded its story network to a total of 4,000 independent operators, along with 775 concessionaires in 90 cities within México and Central America. Stores in the latter include Guatemala, Panamá, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Belize, according to company profile information.

In April, PPG Comex said it opened a new $8.8 million distribution center in Guadalajara, Mexico, that enables the company to fulfill orders from its stores in Mexico within 24 hours. The center serves more than 600 stores in the western states of Jalisco, Nayarit, Colima, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, Sinaloa, Michoacán, and San Luis Potosí.

The new Comex distribution center is capable of storing more than 10 million liters (about 2.8 million gallons) of more than 15,000 unique paint and coatings products. The nearly 2,000-square-meter (21,500-square-foot) facility is the brand’s ninth distribution center in the country.

“Guadalajara is Mexico’s third-largest economic hub and a strategic location in PPG’s supply chain,” said Henrik Bergstrom, president, PPG Comex. “The new center expands our capability to serve customers in even the most remote locations in the western part of the country. It also helps strengthen our position as one of the largest retailers in Mexico, facilitating the renovation of 160,000 homes each day.”

Another paint company continuing to invest in Mexico is Sika, which announced its fifth investment in the country last year for mortar products and concrete admixtures in Coatzacoalcos, to improve the national supply chain, the company said. “There are still challenging situations in Brazil, Peru and Chile,” said Paul Schuler, CEO, in a statement at the time.

Brazil

Brazil is expected to expand its economy by 2 percent this year, although per capita income is distributed very unevenly among the economic classes. Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased by almost one-and-a-half times between 1990-2017, and is still recovering from the 2014 depression.

Brazil is the largest market for paint and coatings in Latin America, accounting for 38 percent by volume and 31 percent of its value, according to 2017 statistics. The country produced 1.548 billion liters of paint and coatings, or a 0.85 percent increase in by volume in 2018 than in the prior year, according to the Associação Brasileira dos Fabricantes de Tintas, the national manufacturers’ association, or Abrafati.

The country’s trade balance in paints and coatings is close. $146 million were imported in 2018 and $140 million were exported, excluding inks, Abrafati calculates.

The segment breakout for consumption shows architectural paint representing 82.7 percent of total national volume, industrial and automotive refinishing 4.1 percent each, and OEM automotive 2.5 percent of total national volume, according to Abrafati.

Brazil’s National Solid Waste Policy has become a key focus of the paint industry recently according to Abrafati. The association indicated that 700 companies are now engaged in the sustainable recycling and disposal of solid waste.

Argentina

Argentina is still struggling with recession, and is expected to continue to shrink its economy by 1.8 percent this year, according to Eclac. The country represents the third or fourth largest demand for paint and coatings in the region, contending for its ranking with Colombia, and following Brazil and Mexico.

One way that the paint and coatings industry will attempt to control costs is through the adoption of renewable energy, in place of more expensive oil-based electrical generation. Argentina’s national paint and coatings association has added renewable energy to its toolbox of recommended technology adoption that will help the economic development of the industry.

There are bright spots within the country, nonetheless. The Argentine operations of Zurich-based Sika posted “above average” sales growth last year, supporting the regional to a 3.2 percent expansion overall compared with 5 percent in 2016, the company annual report stated in April.

Similarly, the government plans to help alleviate the housing shortage by opening up bids for prefabricated housing to international companies. The government has a goal of adding more than 10,000 homes this year.

Chile

Chile’s GDP is expected to rise a solid 3.3 percent this year, as the sixth-fastest growing country in the region, despite a slow first quarter due to the mining industry. During some quarters last year, the economy was up as much as 5 percent, indicating that 2020 is likely to be a strong year for growth following this year’s performance.

Brazil’s family-owned Renner Coatings has opened a new production plant and laboratory in Pudahuel, in the Santiago Province of Chile, amidst growth reports that are moving GDP expectations higher this year.

Renner Coatings is the high-performance architectural and industrial division of Renner Herrmann, based in Curitiba, in the Paraná State of Brazil. Elsewhere in Chile, Renner Coatings has a manufacturing plant in Antofagasta that is oriented to the mining industry, the largest contributor to Chile’s economy.

Renner Coatings Chile’s General Manager Francisco Estades told the Mercurio in late August that “The Renner group bet in Chile because it is a growing, economically solid country, which is why it invested in a modern, high-tech plant, with an emphasis on safety and care for the environment.”

Central America

Central America’s economies as a bloc are growing more slowly than in prior years. Panama is leading forecasts for economic expansion this year at 5.6 percent, according to Eclac. Panama is followed by Honduras at 3.6 percent, Guatemala at 3 percent and Costa Rica at 2.9 percent, and El Salvador at 2.4 percent, according to the agency.

Nicaragua is the only country in the bloc that is still suffering from recession, and is expected to contract by 2 percent this year, Eclac notes.

During the first half of 2018, trade in paints and lacquers between Central American countries fell by 7 percent, from $64 million to $59 million, according to CentralAmericaData.

Within the region, Costa Rica continues to be the main supplier to its neighboring countries. In the first half of 2018, Costa Rica exported $30 million worth of paints and coatings, followed by El Salvador with $16 million, Guatemala with $13 million, Honduras with $0.4 million, and Panama with $0.1, CentralAmericaData said.

In terms of consumption, Honduras was the main buyer of paints and lacquers to other Central American countries, importing $14 million of which $7 million came from Costa Rica, $4 million came from El Salvador and $3 million came from Guatemala, the agency said.

Apart from Comex, Sika also is investing in Honduras, the second-largest economy in Central America, with a population of more than 9 million. Medium-term forecasts predict annual economic growth in excess of 4 percent, the company said.

The Caribbean

The Caribbean country of the Dominican Republic is expected to have the strongest economic expansion in all of Latin America this year, at 5.7 percent, according to Eclac. The country recorded difficult-to-sustain growth of 7 percent last year.

Construction in the D.R. within the tourism sector is one main driver of the national economy. The D.R has long been an assembly point for U.S. goods for import and export.

Haiti, in a surprising continued recovery, will grow by 2.8 percent this year, the agency predicts. And Cuba is expected to grow by 1 percent, Eclac noted.