The construction industry across Latin America is expected to restart in key country markets during 2021, with growth seen in housing, hotels and other architectural market segments. Among countries where growth is predicted are Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

According to an October GlobalData report, Peru’s construction market may expand by 16.8 percent in 2021, followed by Chile with a 6.8 percent expansion and Colombia with a 4.8 percent expansion. Brazil’s construction industry is expected to grow by nearly 4.0 percent in 2021, according to a local report.

The expected 2021 recovery follows the catastrophic contraction in the market during 2020.

“GlobalData lowered its 2020 construction output forecast for Latin America to -11.4 percent from -6.8 percent previously, mostly due to the slower than expected rebound in construction activity in the second half of the year as the coronavirus continues to spread across the region and construction companies are still struggling to revive their operations.”

Nonetheless, Latin America may see more 2021 growth thanks to the outcome of the recent U.S. election.

“A U.S. administration led by president-elect Joseph Biden may promote constructive U.S. re-engagement with Latin America, although the near-term focus in both the U.S. and Latin American countries will remain on domestic issues,” Fitch Ratings said in November.

“Cementing the U.S. economic recovery would support Latin American exports as well as remittance flows to Mexico and Central America. Many Latin American sovereigns will benefit from continued loose U.S. monetary policy, allowing those with external market access to borrow relatively cheaply,” Fitch opined.

Housing and Hotels to Gain, Amidst Infrastructure Programs

Housing is expected to grow in part because of governmental responses to chronic under-housing conditions. Latin America is home to 624 million people and presents high rates of urbanization, with more than 80 percent of its population living in cities, according to United Nations data.

Fitch Ratings, in its updated December Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook said that “We are forecasting home price…growth in the U.S., Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, supported by improved economic prospects with wider vaccine availability later next year.”

Hotel construction also may see faster recovery growth during 2021, according to late November market intelligence from tophotelprojects.com. “The tophotelprojects construction database indicates that there are currently 534 hotel schemes in the works across Latin America, with Mexico leading the way,” they said. These projects will add 134,131 rooms across Latin America, the analysts report.

“In the remaining months of 2020, 74 hotels with 14,894 rooms will open their doors in Latin America – 43 of these are in the pre-opening phase,” tophotelprojects said. “For 2021, a further 228 properties with 46,478 rooms are on the cards. Meanwhile, 106 hotels with 29,508 keys are due for completion in 2022,” the analysts said. “Another 55 projects are in the works for 2023, bringing 13,211 rooms into play, and 71 hotels with 30,040 keys have already been signed off for 2024 and beyond,” they concluded.

Among recent economic events in, and projections for the region are the following country-specific updates:

Brazil

Brazil’s construction industry should grow by 3.8 percent during 2021, compared to a contraction of 2.5 percent in 2020, according to a December projection by the Sindicato da Indústria da Construção Civil do Estado de São Paulo (Sinducon-SP), the São Paulo state construction association. This growth is based on the continuation of currently low financing rates for housing, the group said. Still, the group cautioned that this growth will depend on increasing incentives by the state and federal government.

Not surprisingly, China’s construction equipment market will lead the globe during 2021, according to International Construction Magazine’s 2021 Global Construction Guide. However, “The only other major construction equipment market expected to grow this year is Brazil, where the long-overdue recovery in the infrastructure market is pushing up equipment sales despite the effects of the pandemic,” the group said.

Chile

Chile’s national construction association, the Cámara Chilena de la Construcción (CChC) is supporting the government’s estimated $26 billion plan to jump-start the industry in 2021. The plan, called the Paso a Paso Chile se Recupera (the Employment and Reactivation Plan), foresees some $13 billion invested in infrastructure and $13 billion in housing alone.

While the CChC expects the federal government to invest at least $10 billion in the program, private sector investors are being counted on for an even larger investment. Such investment could arise, given the general economic recovery now underway in Chile.

The Chilean Central Bank in November reported that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity for September was 5.3 percent below the same month in 2019, but that September recorded its best performance since March when double-digit contraction began. The bank report also showed that the economy grew 5.1 percent in September compared to the previous month, marking four straight months of positive change.

Colombia

In a March projection by Invest In Colombia, the outlook was rosy. “With a CAGR of 7.4 percent between 2019-2023, Colombia’s construction sector will continue being one of the most dynamic in Latin America. It is estimated that by 2023 it will reach COP$89.11 trillion (about $26 billion).

However, in a third-quarter 2020 analysis, the aggregate value of construction industry activity was down about 26 percent, according to a November analysis by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica (DANE), the national statistics agency.

The construction industry represents a 6.8 percent share of Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product, within which residential construction is about 48 percent of the total while non-residential construction is approximately 52 percent, according to Invest in Colombia.

Colombia’s construction industry recovery in 2021 may depend on governmental incentives.

“The construction sector, which was reactivated first but is recovering slower than others, could see a boost if the government implements its reactivation plan that includes the prioritization of public construction works,” opined Colombia Reports in late November.

Peru

Peru’s construction industry grew by 8.8 percent during October, according to national statistics released in December. El Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics, indicated that one component of the growth was the consumption of cement, which was up 11.3 percent in October.

In late November, the Peruvian Congress approved the government’s $51 billion stimulus package, much of which is destined for transportation infrastructure, although housing and sanitation are other main pillars of the program.

In Peru, as elsewhere in the region, private sector investment will be key.

”We will leave the fiscal situation in a healthy state. We will do whatever is necessary for private investment to grow,” said new Economy and Finance Minister Waldo Mendoza, in a mid-December press conference. Part of the plan to inspire recovery was the successful launch of $4 billion worth of sovereign bonds in late November.

Fitch Ratings in December forecast real 2021 GDP growth in Peru at 9 percent in 2021, perhaps the strongest national GDP recovery forecast in the region to date.